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天涯热帖榜、移动互联网、大数据时代及其他

  这个话题其实在我脑子里酝酿了很久,一直没有成形,大概是整天刷微博,习惯了碎片式的思考方式,已经很久没有写一篇像样的博客了。
  今天试着把一些想法梳理一下,送给我钟爱的天涯社区,兼我的前任东家。
  昨天跟华子GG在QQ上聊到了新浪微博的#疯狂综艺季#,新浪微博最近借着各大卫视自主运营微话题的势头,推出了微话题榜单。
  
  微话题榜单的更新规则:每个半点更新的小时榜,单位小时内有效##原创人数是热度核心参考数,原创人的影响力有一定加权值。简单说越多真实人越多牛逼人参与越有效。(新浪微博员工@小浪 语)

  看到这个综艺微话题榜单,我一直在思考这是个什么东东?首先想到的是天涯的热帖榜。
天涯一直倡导内容为王,在我看来,天涯推出了很多内容表现形态,包括聚焦页面、微博、品牌栏目等等,其实核心形态还是热帖榜,我相信很多天涯网友找帖子都是通过热帖榜来找的,热帖榜要比聚焦页面更契合网友的阅读习惯,更能实时反映网络话题讨论的真实势态。
  新浪微博微话题榜单就相当于天涯的热帖榜;目前新浪微博支持网友自发主持微话题,就好像天涯某个网友发的帖子;而单个微话题里面的一条条带有该微话题双井号的微博,就如同天涯某个热帖里面的跟帖。
  新浪微博通过话题主持人来打造网络微博红人;天涯大概在08年左右推出过打造网络红人计划,帮助网友上首页、成为万人瞩目的焦点,不幸的是这个计划后来没有延续下去,不了了之了。

  有研究表明,天涯网友是孤独的,大多数网友上天涯只是看帖子、参与讨论,而对楼主是谁并不注意,我想这大概是打造网络红人计划流产的原因。同样是网络社交平台,新浪微博在人际交互方面做得要比天涯好很多。我在北京分公司工作的半年,经常跟奇勇争论天涯的产品(尤其是博客)应该以人为中心,还是以内容为中心。时隔2年,再回头思考这个问题,天涯之所以在失去人际交互的阵地,是因为还没有找到合适的内容表现形态;而新浪微博的微话题做到了,在这个成功案例下,如前文所述,我想到了,天涯热帖榜。天涯在移动互联网时代的发力点应该在优化、革新热帖榜上。充分利用热帖榜,或许能给天涯带来全新的用户体验。
  天涯热帖榜虽然在一定程度上反应了网络话题生态,但它又因为人为干预性强而饱受诟病,水军疯狂顶帖就可能使一个广告性质的帖子很滑稽地登上热帖榜。
  在这里介绍下我了解的新浪微博热门微博榜工作机制,或许能帮天涯剔除这个诟病。
新浪员工@来去之间 发微博说:热门微博榜,绝对不是“转发最多的微博排行榜”(否则全是XXXX了),而是“上榜后引发用户传播可能性最大的微博排行榜”……想上榜的可以感受下,上了榜很快被洗下去的也可以感受下……上榜是个开始不是个结果,话题榜也一样……
  这个微博经过了新浪前员工@fengyoung 的进一步解释:热门微博上榜只是个开始不是结果。详见他的博文>>http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_6cb8e53d0101l2xk.html

  这里面涉及到传播力、真实网友的概念。
  “一个用户在信息传播过程中的重要程度,也就是说传播力越高的用户,一旦参与了信息的传播,会比那些传播力低的用户给该信息带来更大的“收益”(覆盖更多的受众,得到更多的转发……)。”
  天涯社区是传统论坛形态,在产品形态上“传播力”这个概念是缺失的、不完整的,因为论坛的一个帖子只涉及到纵向的跟帖,缺乏横向甚至发散式、拓扑式的传播。新浪微话题可以用算法剔除僵尸粉转发带来的虚假传播,而天涯至今还没有解决水军顶贴顶到热帖榜的问题。(其实是不是水军天涯网友一眼就能认出来,而新浪微博网友也能一眼分辨出僵尸粉。)
  如果一定要找到天涯类似“传播力”的概念,可能就是奇勇曾经提到的跟帖热度概念,类似微博上的“赞”。但这个功能至今也没有实现,反而弱化了。在我看来,天涯跟帖中之前天然存在“赞”的形态,也即天涯网友手动输入的“排”“铜牌”“ 10086”,某条经典回复出现后,引起众多网友共鸣,网友自发在跟帖中复制粘贴该条经典回复,滑动滚动条,只见一条因为段首空2字而依次叠加而成长龙。不幸的是,这种壮观的场面因为后期改版,消失了。(大概是由于不需要手动复制,只需点“回复”,系统自动压缩文字的原因。)
  天涯网友在跟帖中的排这个动作,其实可以用来辨别一个帖子是否有水军顶贴。一个正常的帖子不是一个个网友在自说自话,而是在帖子里互相讨论。
  所以天涯帖子跟帖里网友讨论的形态,可以算作类似新浪微博的“传播力”,来控制帖子是否上热帖榜。(当然我不是技术人员,不了解具体算法,只是从产品形态上来说的。)

  移动互联网时代下一个有可能会火的产品是新闻客户端,这已经在业界得到了广泛的认同。
  以网易新闻客户端为代表的APP,已经初见端倪。今日头条APP这个后起之秀也收获了大量装机率。
  网易新闻客户端以神回复为亮点,今日头条号称五秒钟算出你的兴趣,每个人看到的内容都不一样,你感兴趣的才是头条……
  而天涯同时具备神回复、版块众多几乎能满足所有话题的获取需求,大可以整合网易新闻客户端和今日头条的优势,开发具有天涯特色的移动客户端。客户端的信息来源就是天涯热帖榜 各大热门版块的热帖 编辑推荐,摒除版块的限制,也用新浪微博登陆后系统识别兴趣爱好,对网友个性化推送帖文。(当然发帖还可以用天涯ID,用新浪微博登陆客户端只是一个兴趣识别的作用,因为如前文所述,天涯网友是孤独的,仅仅通过天涯ID分析不出什么内容来,网友注册天涯ID很多只是为了看帖方便,从来不发帖跟帖;而新浪微博是个开放平台,天涯为什么不充分利用这个大数据库呢?)

  回到新浪微博综艺微话题和天涯热帖榜这个议题。(这部分我准备讲下我个人设计的产品模型)
  天涯版块繁多,精品版块也够多,不妨在热帖榜也加入榜单的功能,推出时政话题榜单、综艺话题榜单、时尚榜单、情感榜单、鬼故事榜单、学术榜单……从热帖榜点进去这个榜单,不是一个帖子,而是一个专题,这个专题是经过人工干预的同类话题热帖集合页面。
  热帖榜榜单建议允许网友自己搭建并担任主持人,考虑到天涯目前的产品,需要动用的是“专辑”、天涯微博双井话题功能。

  比如最近的“孕妇装病骗女孩供丈夫性侵并杀害案”这个话题:
  网友可以抢注一个#胡伊萱#的专辑,创建人默认为该专辑(话题)的主持人、然后搜索相关帖文加入该专题,编辑人员根据热度决定是否推送该专辑进入热帖榜,如果推送进入热帖榜的专辑就成为了一个热门话题榜单,网友点击进入会在显著位置看到该网友是这个话题的主持人,这样就解决了推送网络红人的问题。而榜单上也可以由编辑人员加入相关知名写手或当事人的ID作为补充。榜单上也有发帖入口,通过该入口发的帖子,会自动追加到榜单中。
  当然也可以增加一个操蛋的功能,从榜单进入帖子跟帖的网友会同时关注主持人,又解决了网友是孤独的这个问题,系统自动让网友关注某个网友,就增加了网友之间互动的可能性。
  不建议在榜单加入微博转发这类的按钮,因为本身微博跟论坛都在抢用户,转发到微博会无形中培养了网友使用微博的习惯,都转发到微博了,也就懒得跟帖了。

  希望这是一篇惊动968的博文。

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