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微博衰落:大平台悲剧还是IT人幻觉?


文/顾晓波

“这没有意义。”——当记者问“你觉得微博是不是不行了?”的时候,却从一位资深人士口中得到了同一个答案。

微博不行了的论调从微信朋友圈爆红以后开始在圈子里蔓延,在各种互联网行业聚会上参会者拿着手机或按,或扫,或摇,乐此不疲,口头禅从“关注我吧”变成了“加我吧”,从“快转发”变成了“快点赞”,种种迹象似乎都表明,微博正在被抛弃。

而当记者试图去寻找这种“衰落”的原因的时候,舒彧(应本人要求使用化名)却说,把微博作为单一产品来看,去讨论它行或者不行,没有意义。舒彧是一名在互联网圈子里打拼了十余年老兵,现在仍在某微博平台担任中层管理。

那么为什么没意义?

微博:衰落还是回归?

“微博是一个广场,你不能因为今天广场上只剩下老头老太太在跳舞,就说它没用了,相反它周围的生态已经起来了,咖啡厅,烧烤摊,小卖部,出租溜冰鞋自行车,它的生命力在于我们已经把它当成了生活中的一部分,你可能会遗忘它,但是你离不开它。”

今年年中就有媒体称新浪微博的活跃度距离高峰时期已经下滑了超过30%,降至2011年初的水平,不过新浪发布的2013年第二季度财报显示,微博日活跃用户达到了5400万,相比3月初增长8.3%。

两个极端的数据均遭到了不同程度的质疑,而APP内分享服务提供商ShareSDK数据显示,今年上半年社交平台在APP内分享量占比TOP10中,占比最高的是微信好友,占25.51%,回流率84%,其次是新浪微博,占23.29%,回流率117%,微信朋友圈排名第三,占分享量的19.47%,回流率186%,其中用户分享内容到新浪微博的次数几乎等于腾讯微博+QQ空间分享量的总和。

这组数据显示,不管用户活跃度如何,微博仍然是信息流动的主流平台。

“微博它就应该做这个事情,公知,段子手,很多社会事件只会通过微博火起来,这就是微博的价值,是微博的根,赞、评论、转发这些都是叶子。”许朝军说。

而舒彧则彻底否定了记者此前的看法,“不应该用独立的眼光去看待微博的兴衰,人们不会因为它是微博而决定上或者不上,而要看它是不是生活中的一个部分。”

舒彧认为,微博是一个底层,就像马路,上面跑自行车、滑板或者宝马车,都不用在乎,重要的是它们只能在马路上跑才能到达目的地。

二人的观点不谋而合——微博的核心是一个信息的载体,与其他使用微博账号登陆、支持分享到微博或者同步到微博的产品和平台一起,构成了一个生态,而微博是这个生态的底层,它需要做好的,也就是这个底层。

微信:挑落微博还是净化微博?

“我们永远是信息过载、关系链过载的人群,但是二三线、三四线用户,他们的关系链有50到80个人了不起了,如果我只有50个80个朋友,里面还有很多人不懂开朋友圈,我能在里面玩什么呢?”

微信朋友圈做到了两件事情:1、让用户把原本发到微博上的内容发到了朋友圈,2、让很多原本不用微博的人开始在朋友圈分享内容。于是结论就是朋友圈抢夺了微博用户并吸纳了更多新用户。

为什么不是QQ+QQ空间而是微信+朋友圈抢走了用户?陈华认为,QQ空间和微信朋友圈是没有什么区别的,不过QQ现在变成一个商务沟通工具,微信变成一个熟人的日常沟通工具,手机QQ原本的定位很难改变,最后QQ上朋友之间的沟通反而慢慢变小了,当微信圈夺走了用户60%甚至70%的时间,聊天、分享、评论、互动都集中在微信上是很自然的事情。

舒彧则表示,用户刚接触到微博的第一感觉是不好玩,因为没有人,于是不断地加人,认识的不认识的都加,什么内容都发,最后内容泛滥,无意义的东西泛滥的时候,有意义的东西会变得更加昂贵,用户会主动去寻找,主动向有价值的个人、账号、群体靠拢,这是一种自我净化,微信出现了,用户把吃喝玩乐自拍炫耀都发到了微信,加速了微博的净化过程。

而对于微信来说,关系链既是优势也是短板,舒彧说:

1、当我关系链不足的时候我的世界是一个封闭的世界,今天微信有很大一个比例的用户是不开朋友圈的,如果我只有50个80个朋友,里面还有很多人不开朋友圈,我能看到什么呢?

2、朋友圈里面每天都是吃了什么玩了什么或者自拍,我要看好玩的东西上哪里看,只有微博。

3、现在越来越多的心灵鸡汤、误导和无聊的东西也充斥进朋友圈了,我需要逃离这个围栏看更多的新鲜的东西,只有微博。

新浪的机会与错失

随着其他玩家的逐步退出,目前微博的大玩家只剩下了两家:腾讯和新浪,对腾讯来说,微博已经不是一个影响整体战略的产品,而是一个生态的基础平台,而对新浪来说,微博几乎等同于未来。

从大的范畴看,微博本身出于社交体系中,但是从单一产品看,微博的社交需求正在被微信迅速消解,看到腾讯在自家后院点起了一把火,微博坐不住。

从微友、微米、密友到“好友圈”,从话题社交、私密社交到群组社交,新浪微博一直在社交方向上屡战屡败,而回过头看,会发现新浪微博在社交上一直在追着微信走,但是二者在产品上的差距却越来越大。

陈华表示,如果当时新浪能够赶在微信之前做很多类似微信的事情,比如二维码、朋友圈,其实机会是非常大的,第二,微博是有机会做社交的,如果它的私信功能做的足够强大,当初是有机会做的过微信的,但是它的私信功能越来越难用。

每个人都在说新浪微博没有产品基因,媒体属性过重,而几位新浪微博的离职员工讲到了另外两个原因。

1、媒体的叠加思路,新浪微博是一块大蛋糕,新浪每个部门都想来分一块,不断做加法,加版块加功能,最后变得越来越复杂越来越重;

2、团队的流失和更迭,尤其是中层变换很快,每个人都有自己的想法,产品就跟着改,最后四不像;

3、机制问题,做产品的能力和思维不同。

IT人的幻觉

“我们这个圈子里的人有一个毛病,就是我不用了,就觉得所有人都不用了,这是一种幻觉。”

一线城市的IT人群敏感,前卫,追逐潮流,他们是微博最早的用户,也是最早抛弃微博的用户,他们似乎代表了一种趋势,然而舒彧说,其实我们是最无意义的人群。

“我们这群人其实都是高富帅白富美,第一,永远对新鲜事物掌握最多了解最多,哪怕你不用阅后即焚你也知道它是个什么,你去看看二三线三四线用户,那些小的企业主,他们关心什么?”舒彧说,“第二,我们从不付费,抠的要死,但是真正二三线三四线的用户不是这样。”

正如舒彧所说,互联网人是最前卫的尝鲜人群,在不同的平台之间跳动,今天有了微博就去微博,明天有了啪啪就去啪啪,后天有了微信又跑到微信,永远在“流窜”,同时这个群体又是一个高度同质化的小圈子,当互相聊起微博、微信时都会有相同的感受,当同感越来越多,这种感受就会被认为是现实,然而事实上,这只是一个小圈子里的看法。

“如果做产品仅仅聚拢了这群人,那是一种悲哀。”舒彧说。

微博和微信外的机会

“你觉得很多产品用户不玩了,不玩是因为觉得不够热闹不够新鲜,不够新鲜的逻辑不是因为它不行了,而是我们的需求变得更加个性了,这些大的平台无法解决这些个性的需求,于是社交网络上这些个性的需求开始逃逸出来。”

舒彧认为,这些逃逸出来的需求都是机会,比如陌陌、唱吧、啪啪或者阅后即焚,而新浪和腾讯也在抓住这些逃逸出来的机会,所以最近都在推短视频产品。

许朝军用黑洞来比喻微信,当它吸收了所有对等的需求后,不对等的需求还在,机会就在离这个黑洞比较远的地方。“为什么我们当时不做纯图片,因为这部分已经被微信搞定了,就在黑洞里。”许朝军说,“现在做社交,就要在不对等的网络里寻找垂直化的机会。”

“人和人的关系是一个社区最重要的价值,如果你的关系不够强是很危险的。”陈华表示,唱吧通过唱歌把用户圈到一个生态里,明星和粉丝、粉丝之间、粉丝群之间、家族之间在这个生态里产生各种关系,这些关系形成了大量的互动,最后形成一个跟主流社交网络不一样的社交网络。

记者手记:

尽管已经有用户开始逐步淡化微博,喜欢尝鲜的用户从微博跳到微信,或者其他平台,不过正如舒彧所说,大量APP、网站都使用微博账号登陆,用户从各种不同的产品中分享、发送内容到微博,当这样的生态已经形成,微博本身活跃度的变化已经不那么重要,因为它已经把用户纳入到它的生态圈中。

微博和微信各自形成了两个生态,微博的开放生态分散到各种长尾应用中,而微信则将用户牢牢圈在自己不断扩大的生态圈里,这是两个维度的竞争,而两个大平台之外,细分领域仍然存在创业机会。

在采访之初记者试图去探寻微博为什么衰败,最后却发现这就是一个伪命题,上面提到的IT人的幻觉同样适用于其他很多产品,在我们点评和分析某个产品大势已去,某公司或大佬应该反思时,或许真正应该反思的正是提出这一说法的“局中人”。

本文来源:网易科技报道

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