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苹果推类微信IM软件会成功吗?

苹果推类微信IM软件会成功吗?
导读:苹果公司于北京时间6月3日凌晨1点在美国旧金山举办全球开发者大会(WWDC2014)。iOS 8、新一代OS X在本次大会上推出。新的iMessage更像一个IM聊天工具,不仅支持群聊还可直接发送语音和视频,在iOS用户之间可完成微信或Whatsapp等软件的几乎所有聊天功能。
早晨刷微博时看到老东家天涯社区的执行主编华子GG质疑:操作系统公司做IM,鲜有成功的先例。微软的MSN已经下线了,而Google的Hangout则几乎无人知晓(因为Android系统的多元化,使用原生系统的用户非常少)。苹果的iMessage能开创先例吗?
在笔者看来,IM即时通讯软件是网络自由精神的体现,苹果的操作系统本身不是开放系统,加之更新换代慢,每次更新系统意味着硬件终端需要更换,成本如此巨大,想成功得先走低价路线吧?
这次大会上苹果CEO库克黑完微软Win8.1的市场占有率后,不负众望地点评了安卓市场占有率:去年有1亿3千万用户购买了他们人生中第一部iPhone手机,其中不少是从Android阵营中倒戈的。他们过去不小心买错了手机,而现在则找到了更好的体验和人生。iPhone在中国的用户中几乎有一半是从Android投奔过来的。
IM即时通讯的性质决定了只会是微信一家独大: IM容易产生市场垄断,关系链本身就是雪球;关系链一旦形成,就很难迁移 ;IM本身不赚钱,在市场占有率不高的情况下,日子难熬,MSN亏了多年,总算是寿终正寝了。
再看看类微信IM界的老二们:易信、微米、来往、旺信、甚至京东商城也要推自己的IM……去年下半年烧钱过后,又是送流量、又是送话费,微信依然是傲然坐老大地位岿然不动。垂直细分IM不是纯粹的IM,往往是辅助主产品,不赚钱也过得去。
各大互联网甚至手机厂商进入类微信IM领域,最终目标无非该是培养自己的SNS网络,以此培养用户黏性并扩展业务。否则竞争对手一但推出类IM服务,难免陷入被动局面。苹果推IM应该不会成功,当初小米推米聊,差点做了IM老大的地位,被微信一个不小心弯道超车,从此一蹶不振。再如,淘宝有如此大流量,又有社区等各种概念吸引用户参与,结果还是不温不火,只限制于淘宝内部使用。去年微米叫的风生水起,试图问鼎IM大佬之位,最后不也不尴干尬吗?试问现在微米除了新浪员工在用,还有哪些人在用?
中文网络界几个妄图推出类微信IM的企业巨头无一不是以失败告终。移动、网易、阿里巴巴……如果仅仅苹果是为了用户维护,还不如做好自己的产品。
库克在嘲讽安卓系统安全风险系数高的同时,不妨了解一下用户为什么会越狱,无非是提高终端设备的可玩性,事实上苹果iOS系统已经针对中国用户做了一些让步,譬如iOS7系统增加九宫格键盘。苹果iOS8发布在即,更应该重视一些越狱功能:

iOS操作系统底栏可以挤进更多的应用的功能;
为单一文件夹或应用设定密码锁定的功能;
智能的锁屏功能,在家里、办公室或其他的安全场合,就不太需要密码锁定屏幕;
更换默认浏览器,Safari固然优秀,但习惯Chrome,Firefox、Opera或其他浏览器,是不是允许用户修改默认浏览器?

同学们还有什么希望在iOS8增加的越狱功能,不妨跟帖说一说~

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